For those of you that have been regular readers on this site, you know that I've been giving you my theories as to who will win the tournament. For reminder's sake, here are the factors:

Free Throws

Balanced Play

Efficiencies

I never got to the fourth factor. Which is having a "go to" guy. Regular readers of this site know that I'm not a big fan of Memphis, however, they actually have a leg up in this area. They have two guys that have shown that they can take over when needed. Chris Douglas Roberts and Eric Rose. Just to be clear. I think Memphis is a good team, I just don't think they are a championship team.

When you take a look at all of the factors, three teams stand out. North Carolina, UCLA and Kansas. Unfortunately, I see small problems with all three teams.

For North Carolina, Ty Lawson still hasn't gotten completely healthy. If he's completely healthy, I think they are hands down the team to beat. Tennessee will not be able to compete with them on the inside, but it would be fun to watch both teams run up and down the court.

If you take a look at all of the factors, Kansas seems like the obvious choice. However, when you watch them, do they really have a "go-to" guy? Rush would qualify as the guy, but it sure seems like he can be shut down. Also, you don't hear to many folks talking about the great coaching job that Bill Self does.

UCLA also meets all of the criteria. But the injuries to Mbah a Moute and the "injury" to Love have to scare you off a little bit. Also, it sure seems like they've been having a lot of close calls recently. That can be a good thing (they can win close games) or a bad team (they can't finish games).

Side note: the funny thing about Memphis is even though they come up poorly in all of the factors, so does everyone else in their bracket. The more I look at the bracket, the more I feel they might make it. Also, it was funny to watch John Calipari defend/excuse his team's free throw shooting during his PTI segment yesterday. In the end, I don't have them making it to San Antonio.

Georgetown (no go-to guy), Tennessee (no inside game, takes stretches off, poor free throw shooting), Duke (no inside game) and Texas (defensive efficiency struggles) all have flaws in their game.

So, I'm going to go with UCLA. Why? I'm not sure really. I like their coach and they have a balanced team. They play great defense and they've made it to the Final Four the last two years. The injuries and close games really scare me, but since everyone has a flaw, I've got to go with someone right? Oh yea, and I want to look like I know what I'm talking about.